By Joe Pohoryles
Alex Ovechkin is in unfamiliar territory. A slow start has turned into a slow season for the Great 8, who has just eight goals through 38 games in 2023-24. His 6.0 shooting percentage is the lowest it’s ever been. The 38-year-old Washington Capitals captain is on pace for just 17 goals in an 82-game season, which would be about half as much as his worst full-length season total of 33 in 2016-17.
It’s worth noting that the Capitals won the Presidents Trophy that year, and while that won’t be the case for this year’s version of the Caps, they’ve stayed afloat despite Ovechkin’s lack of production.
However his production is increasing, if ever so slightly, in recent games. Ovechkin is on a five-game point streak, with two goals and four assists over that span. Sitting at 830 career goals, Ovechkin is just 65 away from breaking the record. The 2023-24 season has been a setback, and while he’s all but assured of hitting a new career-low, there’s still over half the season left to make up ground and keep the record in reach.
Suppose he picks up his rate to average half a goal a game – or a goal every other game – down the stretch. 0.5 goals per game is well below his career average (0.60) and it would mean 22 goals over the next 44 games, which would put him at an even 30 on the season and 43 away from the record with two years left on his current contract.
That’s probably the best case scenario. The more realistic scenario will likely put him somewhere in the middle of half a goal a game and his current pace. Surely it can’t stay this low the whole season, right?
Instead, he’ll probably end the season in the 20-25 range, which would put him 48-53 goals away from breaking the record. Hopefully this season is an outlier and not a sign of what’s to come in the next couple years. Obviously the days of 50-goal seasons – or even 40 goals – are over, but if he can average 30-35 goals over an 82-game pace for the next two-and-a-half years, he should still be able to break the record before his contract ends.
The Wildcard 