By Joe Pohoryles
Two months ago, I predicted Alex Ovechkin would pass Gordie Howe for the No. 2 spot on the NHL all-time goal list between Dec. 23-31, with a specific prediction of Dec. 29 against the Ottawa Senators.
After reaching 800 on Dec. 13 with a hat trick against the Chicago Blackhawks, it seemed like he would blow past Howe’s 801 earlier than anticipated. A four-game drought followed, but he ultimately scored twice against the Winnipeg Jets on Dec. 23 to tie and pass Howe, just managing to sneak into the front of my predicted window. I’ll chalk that up as a win for my forecasting.
Since reaching 802 goals and taking sole possession of the No. 2 spot, Ovi has been on an absolute tear. He has seven goals over the past six games since he overtook Howe, good enough for 1.167 goals per game. Now with 29 goals in 42 games on the season, The Gr800 is on pace for 56-57 goals if he plays all 82 games.
If we knock off about five for maintenance days, which would match the 77 games he played last year, that pace is set for 53 goals. Ovechkin scored 50 goals for the ninth time last season, tying Mike Bossy and Wayne Gretzky for the most such seasons in a career. Reaching the 50-mark for the record 10th time seemed unlikely as Ovechkin goes up in age, but he continues to defy time.
Even if he slows down and fails to reach 50 again, staying in the ball park will still provide a tremendous boost to his chances of passing Gretzky in the long run. After his 50 goals last year, he only needed to average 29 goals across the next four seasons of his contract to pass Gretzky; he’s at 29 goals right now and we’re just barely past the halfway mark of this season.
That needed seasonal average is going down again, and it will continue to fall the more he scores. If he stays on track and finishes the season with 56 goals, that would mark 836 for his career and put him 59 goals away from passing Gretzky. He would only need to score 20 goals over each of the next three years to pass Gretzky before his current contract ends.
Even if he doesn’t reach 56 and instead falls in the range of 45-50, the needed seasonal average would drop from 29 to 22-24. It’s starting to look less like an ‘if’ and more like a ‘when.’
Last installment, I laid my projections for passing Gretzky at February 2025. If Ovechkin manages to reach 56 goals this year and is left 59 away, that projection would have to trickle back into 2024. I won’t go that far just yet, but the fact that it’s now 2023 and we could very well be less than two years away from Ovechkin becoming the all-time leading goal-scorer in NHL history is hard to fathom.
Can’t get too excited just yet; there’s a lot of goals to score and injuries/stoppages to avoid, but there is one man in sight now; the man we’ve been chasing all along. Everyone else has been encountered and left behind. Just 85 goals left to tie, 86 to pass. Here’s where the fun begins.
Cover Photo Credit: NHL.com
The Wildcard 