By Joe Pohoryles
Entering the first season of Alex Ovechkin’s new five-year contract, 33 was the magic number. To break Wayne Gretzky’s record in five seasons, Ovechkin would have to average 33 goals across each of those seasons.
He’s now at 34 this season. For every goal he scores above 33 this year, the lower the necessary average will become for the remaining four. Anyone would have expected Ovechkin to score over 33 goals this season, and even next season. But at 40 years old?
If any player could score over 33 goals at 40, it would be Ovi, but these next couple years will be huge in making the job easier down the line. Now that he’s eclipsed 33 this season, every goal from now on will set a new average.
This past month, Ovechkin scored five goals and five assists across nine games. He currently has 34 goals and 34 assists in 55 games this season. With 25 games left, Ovechkin is now on pace for 49-50 goals if he doesn’t miss another game. His pace slowed considerably since his red-hot start, but he’s scoring .618 goals per game this season, which is in line with his .610 career average.
However, after posting a .769 rate through the first two months of the season, Ovechkin is now scoring at a .483 pace across the past 29 games. If that rate continues, he will finish the year with 46 goals. One hot streak in this final stretch of games could boost the final total up a few more, so the opportunity to hit 50 is still there.
If he does manage to reach exactly 50 this season, the new average needed to catch Gretzkty in four years will be ~29 goals per season, which Ovechkin should easily exceed next year barring a shortened schedule or a major injury (knocking on every piece of wood).
Next season, 50 seems like a long shot, but if Ovechkin can reach 45, the average for the remaining three seasons will become 23-24 goals per season. For Ovechkin to lower his needed seasonal average by 10 in just two years would be monumental.
Even 40 goals next year would make the average 25 goals per game across the final three years, a mark Ovechkin could continue exceeding to the point where he may need less than 20 by the time the final year comes.
His days of 50-goal seasons may be behind him, but if a 41-year-old Ovechkin needs just 15 goals to pass Gretzky in his final season, I would bet the house on him getting it done. This is why every passing game and every goal he adds to this year’s total will be so important for the rest of his contract.
Moving on from averages to totals, another major milestone is on the horizon for this upcoming month. Sitting at 764 in his career total, Ovechkin is just two goals shy of tying Jaromir Jagr for third on the all-time goals list. Once he passes Jagr this month, all eyes will be on two of the greatest players to ever lace up skates.
Gordie Howe’s 801 should be passed next season, and then it’ll be all about Gretzky.
Tonight’s game against Calgary also has the special distinction of being the 1,000th game Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom have played together. The milestones continue to stack up for this legendary pair, and tonight will be just the start of several exciting developments that should occur this month.
Cover Photo Credit: Nick Wass/Associated Press
The Wildcard 