By Joe Pohoryles
By Feb. 1, Alex Ovechkin was the only Washington Capital to play in every single game this season. On Feb, 2, that came to an end. A positive test put Ovechkin into COVID protocols, forcing him to miss Washington’s 5-3 loss to Edmonton.
Ovi entering protocol was always a possibility, but the silver lining is that with it coming right before the All-Star break, he will only miss one game, as it’s been reported that he’s full go for tonight’s game against Columbus. He will apparently miss the game against Montreal on Thursday due to Canada’s quarantine rules, but otherwise looks ready to roll after the break.
And hopefully he will start rolling again. Prior to tonight, Ovi failed to register a point in his last four games, and scored just five goals across 11 games this past month. Currently sitting at 29 goals this season, and with 35 games left (34 for Ovi if you exclude the Montreal game), Ovechkin is now on pace for exactly 50 goals.
We’ve seen the ups and downs when it comes to Ovi’s production this season, so it’s reasonable to expect him to regress (or progress?) to the mean and hopefully make it to 50 by season’s end. If he misses more than just the Montreal game down the stretch, and will only play in, say, 30 more games, he will have to score 0.70 goals per game.
In a short sample size, and with Ovi likely to be more motivated to hit 50 the closer he gets, that’s certainly doable. He is going to have to start ramping it up soon, and hopefully a change to the power play will supplement that.
Coach Peter Laviolette announced he was swapping Evgeny Kuznetsov out of the first unit and replacing him with Lars Eller. Kuzy’s creativity will hopefully spark the second unit, but regardless it was clear a change had to be made.
With the power play converting just 15.33 percent of the time this season (league average is 20.61%), an improvement in that department will definitely help Ovechkin’s cause. The power play GOAT has just seven power play goals and we’re over halfway through the season, putting him on pace for about 12.
The last (and only) time Ovechkin scored fewer than 12 power play goals in a full 82-game season was 2010-11, when he had seven in 79 games. Other than that, he has never scored fewer than 13 in a full season.
For him to reach 50 with one of his lowest outputs on the man-advantage ever would be a greater testament to how his game has evolved, keeping him among the best wingers and most prolific scorers in the world. But increased power play production will certainly make things easier.
For what it’s worth, the return of TJ Oshie should help tremendously. He’s dangerous at the front of the net, which draws some attention away from Ovechkin, but it’s going to take more than Oshie’s return to make the power play elite again. We’ll have to see what the coaching staff cooks up.
Another thing to watch is how Ovechkin responds after coming off the COVID list. He was reportedly asymptomatic, but we’ve seen examples across multiple sports of athletes recovering from COVID and struggling to return to physical form. Even Kuznetsov had struggled with it last season.
This next month will have major implications for the Ovechkin goal chase, but hopefully the COVID issues will be left behind.
Cover Photo Credit: Getty Images
The Wildcard 