By Joe Pohoryles
10 editions of Chasing Gretzky; what a milestone. I expect 30-40+ of these when all is said and done, but by finally reaching double-digits, I decided to do something special.
As part of a separate project for my college sports journalism class, I had the opportunity to speak to two Caps reporters who I have a great deal of respect for: JJ Regan from NBC Sports Washington and Tarik El-Bashir from The Athletic.
We discussed multiple topics about this year’s Capitals team that I may publish in a later piece, but I made sure to carve out some extra time to talk about Alex Ovechkin and his goal chase. (It was still relevant to the project, but the timing worked out well with the 10th edition coming up.)
So in addition to my own reaction to the past month, I’ve included the insights of Regan and El-Bashir. Some responses have been lightly edited for clarity and brevity.
After an elite opening month of the season, Ovechkin has just about kept up his red-hot scoring pace to make for his most productive start ever. Up to 20g-21a-41p through 26 games, he scored nine goals in 14 games over this past month.
He has already surpassed his assist totals from each of the past two seasons (18 in 45 games in 2020-21, 19 in 68 games in 2019-20). I keep saying he’s going to slow down this season but… when?
The current COVID outbreak won’t help. With Nic Dowd, Garnet Hathaway and Trevor van Riemsdyk all on the COVID list, the Capitals canceled practice today. Hopefully this won’t escalate much further and cause Ovechkin and the rest of the team to get out of rhythm.
We’re gonna focus on the positive here, and with 20 goals through 26 games, Ovechkin is now on pace to end the season with 63 if he plays all 82 games. Anticipate some missed games, and that number “falls” to roughly 58, depending on how many games you have him missing.
That would place him with 788 career goals, 22 ahead of Jaromir Jagr for third on the all-time list, and 13 behind Gordie Howe for second. It would also mean he would only need to average 26.5 goals per season over the next four years of his contract.
If we want to be more conservative and put him squarely at 50 goals this season, he’ll finish with 780, and need to average 28.5 goals per season going forward. Rather than go much further into the hard numbers, I’m gonna turn the floor over to this edition’s guests to get their thoughts.
Point blank: Do you think Ovechkin will break Gretzky’s goal record?
JJ Regan, NBC Sports Washington: So for years and years and years, I said no… And, you know, just the fact that he’s even made it realistic is an absolutely incredible testament to how great he is, and he’s probably already the best goal-scorer of all time.
I’m starting to change my opinion because every year I go into the season saying: ‘This is the year where he cannot possibly score as many goals as he has been,’ and he’s off to his best start ever at 36. That’s insane, and he’s not doing it on the power play. As soon as they get a decent power play, these goals may go up even more… I’m starting to believe that there’s a real chance.
He’s got to pass 33 goals this year. He can’t score 33 goals at the age of 40. I hate saying he can’t do something because every time I do, he makes me look like an idiot, but at some point, Father Time is going to catch up with him… He’s got to get 40, maybe 45 this year. If he does that, then absolutely I think he can break the record.
Tarik El-Bashir, The Athletic: If he keeps playing the way he’s playing, he’s gonna pass Wayne Gretzky in three years. It’s not even gonna take the whole five years… Let’s say he gets 45 to 50 this year, and let’s say he gets 40 next year. That’s 90 right there. He’d need just 75 goals in the last three years of his deal. He’s gonna get that.
To me, and this is kind of DC homer in me a little bit coming out, I think the question is gonna be how far can he get past Gretzky at this point? Like, can you get to 900-something and make it so Connor McDavid can’t catch him?
With his injuries and COVID stint last season leading to less production and generating some doubters for this season and beyond, what have you seen Ovechkin do this season compared to recent years that’s leading to this type of production?
Regan: Well, the big thing as compared to last year — and he’s talked about this several times — is that he knew when this season would start. He’s really good at offseason training and being prepared for the start of the season, and I think last year, not knowing exactly when the season would start, and not being built up to that point really affected him.
And then you miss a week in the season early on. It’s hard to really amp your game up to the way that he would want to be. He wasn’t terrible last year; it was just not up to the standard that we’ve seen from him, which made a lot of people think ‘Okay, here’s the regression, here it comes,’ and then he’s just been unbelievable at the start of the year. So I think the offseason training was the big factor there.
El-Bashir: He won’t tell me the truth, but he looks lighter to me. Look at pictures of him now… He lost 15-20 pounds this summer. This would be speculation, he literally won’t tell me. Just last time I asked, he was like, “Tarik, I will not tell you how much I weigh. Think of me as woman.”
But you can see it. You can see it in his play, you can see it in his face, you can see it in his midsection. He trimmed up, and that’s not new. Most players when they get into their mid-30s, if they’re still playing, trim down.
Justin Williams was a stick. They literally called him “stick” because he was so skinny. Williams lost weight when he was here, so I think taking care of his body has become more of a priority for Ovechkin, and I think that’s part of the reason why he’s having the success he’s having right now.
How has he/his game evolved to the point that allows him to continue scoring at a high rate?
Regan: Five years ago, if I told you a 36-year-old Alex Ovechkin can score a hat trick, and none of those goals will be on power play, you probably wouldn’t believe me. That’s what he’s doing right now… Over the years, he’s adjusted his game.
The patented Ovechkin goal 10 years ago was the rush from the other end of the ice where he cuts through the center of the ice, uses the defenseman as the screen and just rockets a shot in between his legs. We don’t see as much of that anymore. We see a lot of rebounds, we see a lot of deflections. We see a lot of dirty goals that we just didn’t see in the earlier part of his career, so he’s adjusted his game tremendously for where he is at this point in his career.
El-Bashir: He takes a lot better care of his body now. He has a personal trainer that basically lives with him 12 months out of the year… When he was a kid, he would walk in the rink and be eating a chocolate chip scone and sweet drink from Starbucks. I’m talking his second or third year*. He didn’t realize how much work goes into nutrition and recovery. He relied on just freaking athleticism for a long time, but not anymore.
(*In his third season, Ovechkin won his only Art Ross trophy to date and his first Hart Trophy, with career-highs in goals (65) and points (112), so… make of that what you will)
What will happen if he’s just short of the record by the end of his current contract?
Regan: I don’t think we’re going to see him hang on to be a three or five goal-scorer on the fourth line at the age of 42. He’s not going to be a Jagr or anything like that.
But you think if he’s within 10 goals after this contract is up, and he’s scored 15 goals — he’s still a somewhat productive player — you got to think they’re gonna bring him back to at least score some empty net goals and get that record at that point. I came into this contract thinking ‘He’s got to have one more big season to make it realistic.’ He’s having that season now.
Interestingly, El-Bashir partially disagrees…
El-Bashir: One thing he has mentioned more to me recently is his adoration and admiration of the dudes who played and produced late into their 40s. He talks about Jagr, he talks about Joe Thornton, he talks about Zdeno Chara. Like, if this dude stays healthy, he’s gonna play these five years out, get to 40 years old, and he’s gonna sign one year contracts until his wife goes ‘I want to go back to Russia.’ He may never do that, but I could see him play on two or three one-year contracts after this contract just to keep building that cushion.
[Referencing Ovi’s fist pound through the glass with his son, Sergei, after netting a hat trick against Florida on Nov. 26] That’s a big thing for him. He really, really wants his two sons to remember him as a great player. Not just read in books and old newspaper articles about how great he was. He wants them to remember what Capital One Arena looks like when it loses their s*** over him scoring a hat trick… He might play seven more years, it would not surprise me. I think if he stays in the 20-goal range, he sticks around as long as he can.
I do think at some point, he’s gonna want to go to Dynamo Moscow and play a year or two before transitioning into the general manager of Team Russia. He’s gonna stay in the game.
No matter how long Ovi sticks around, it’s clear how important this season will be in determining how much easier it is for the record to be broken. We can all hope he keeps up his current goal pace for as long as he can.
Cover Photo Credit: NBC Sports Washington
The Wildcard 