By Joe Pohoryles
Between two lockouts and two other seasons shortened by the pandemic, every obstacle has been thrown in Alex Ovechkin’s path for the all-time NHL goal record. After injuries and a stint on the COVID list last season combined for one of his worst scoring seasons in recent memory (even with fewer games on the schedule), it was fair to wonder if the Russian Machine had finally broken.
So what happened next? Oh, he only put up a start to the season that earned him the NHL’s First Star of the Month for October.
Despite being a game-time decision on opening night against the New York Rangers due to another injury, this time sustained in the preseason, Ovechkin played and notched two goals and two assists to give both himself and the Washington Capitals a fast start to the 2021-22 season.
He kept it going too, now up to 18 points (3rd in the entire NHL, and most among anyone who is NOT one of the two superstars in Edmonton) and a league-leading 10 goals through 11 games.
Starting the season just one goal behind Marcel Dionne on the all-time leaderboard, Ovi passed him for sole possession of fifth on the list in the first game. He’s now just one goal behind Brett Hull in fourth.
With Ovi’s recently signed five-year contract, there’s a firm layout of the runway he has left to pass Wayne Gretzky, which I went over in the previous edition.
Now with this start, we can forecast a range of possibilities based on the Great Eight’s track record over his most recent seasons.
With the last five years combining two pandemic seasons, three Rocket Richards and the one (relatively) down year where he scored 33 goals in 82 games back in 2016-17, it seems like a well-balanced sample to project how Ovi should perform in the long run, especially when (if?) age begins to catch up with him.
Over those five seasons (2016-17 to 2020-21), the Capitals played 371 games, and Ovechkin played in 358 of them, which is 96.5 percent. Ovechkin scored 205 goals across those 358 games, which amounts to 0.576 goals per game over the past five seasons. For his career, including the start of this season, he’s averaged ~0.6126.
Again, when (if??) durability becomes a bigger factor, I wouldn’t be shocked if Ovechkin appears in less than 96.5 percent of Washington’s games over the next five years. We’ve talked about a major injury derailing his chances, but how many games can he miss while still having a realistic shot?
After 11 games this season, there are 399 left in Ovechkin’s contract. With 740 career goals at this point, he needs 155 more to pass Gretzky.
If Ovechkin plays in 96.5 percent of games over the rest of his contract and maintains that 0.576 GPG average, he’ll end up with 221 goals in 385 games. That would leave him with a total of 961, smashing Gretzky’s 894.
Even if he only scores 0.40 GPG (his worst single-season rate) across all 385 games, he’ll end up with 154, tying Gretzky at 894 exactly by the end of his contract.
Just like it’s unrealistic to expect him to score at such a low rate over each of the next five seasons, it may be unrealistic to expect him to play 96.5 percent of the time.
Even if he plays 90 percent of the games and scores 0.576 GPG, he’ll end up with 206 goals in 359 games, leaving him with 946 and still crushing the record of 894.
Drop it down to 80 percent of the games, which would mean he’d miss a season’s worth of games over the next five years, and with 0.576 GPG, that gives him 183 goals in 319 games, which still has him establishing the 900 goal club with 923 total.
0.576 GPG over the rest of Ovi’s contract
| % GP | GP | Goals | Career Goals |
| 100 | 399 | 230 | 970 |
| 96.5 | 385 | 221 | 961 |
| 90 | 359 | 206 | 946 |
| 80 | 319 | 183 | 923 |
And even if you believe 0.576 GPG is way too generous of an estimate for a player entering his late 30s, even someone like Ovechkin, the fact that he’s going far beyond 900 in these estimations shows the breathing room he has. Just to get 155 and pass Gretzky by exactly one in that timeframe would require him to score 0.485 GPG.
For someone with a 0.613 career GPG to score at least 0.485 GPG in the latter stages of his career, and still break the record after missing a season’s worth of games seems more than doable.
0.485 GPG over the rest of Ovi’s contract
| % GP | GP | Goals | Career Goals |
| 100 | 399 | 193 | 933 |
| 96.5 | 385 | 186 | 927 |
| 90 | 359 | 174 | 914 |
| 80 | 319 | 154 | 894* |
Knocking on every piece of wood in sight, we can hope that he doesn’t suffer more than one devastating injury (and obviously that he doesn’t have any at all), but knowing that he can still break the record even after missing that much time is reassuring.
His scoring pace this season will slow down eventually, but he’s in good shape for 50 or more. The more he scores this season, the easier the record will be to attain, so while the Caps are dealing with a lot of negatives between the injuries, inconsistent goaltending and poor overtime record, it’s nice seeing Ovechkin get off to such a great start.
Cover Photo Credit: John McCreary/NHLI via Getty Images
The Wildcard 