By Joe Pohoryles
Alex Ovechkin is here to stay!
The Great 8 signed a five-year/$47.5 million deal that will pay him $9.5 million per year until the 2025-26 season. He’ll be nearly 41 years old by the end of the deal, which is a lot of term and money to dedicate to a player of that age. This is also Alex Ovechkin.
He won’t be the player he was at 23, or perhaps even the one he is right now, but Ovechkin has defied the typical aging processes this long, so hopefully it won’t be too bad in five years. Even if it is, he is the franchise. To see him play in another NHL uniform would be unthinkable. The days of Stanley Cup contention may soon be over (if they aren’t already), which means there is one conquest Ovechkin and the team appear to be focused on.
Yes, the explanation behind this offseason Chasing Gretzky, not on the eighth of the month, is the implications behind this new contract and what it means for the record chase and the franchise. It’s only fitting that this monumental checkpoint comes in the eighth installment of this series.
To start, let’s break down the bones of this deal. I was fully expecting a four-year deal paying between $10-11 million a year. Four years would match up with the rest of Nicklas Backstrom’s term, likely signaling the end of an era. Instead, Ovi signs for an extra year and remains at a $9.5 million cap hit.
Ovechkin has said he’ll head back to the KHL in Russia when his Capitals/NHL playing days are over, so it’s safe to say that’ll be his next stop when his contract is up in 2026. Assuming there’s no change of heart or forced trade, Ovi should end his NHL career as a Capital and only a Capital.
If we cap the goal chase at the end of this contract, Ovi will need to average 33 goals per season in his late 30s. If anyone can do it, the Great 8 can, but he won’t be able to miss much more time, whether it’s his fault or not.
With the games canceled due to the 2004/05 and 2012/13 lockouts plus the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, you could argue Ovechkin has missed out on nearly 100 career goals, or at the very least would be fast approaching 800. To be at 800 with five years left, Ovi would need to average 19 per season; a cake walk that would likely see him take it in 2023-24, the third year of his contract.
Alas, we’re stuck at 730. 165 away from the record. 33 goals in 2021-22 seems easily attainable. 33 goals at 40 years old in 2025-26? Even with Ovechkin, that seems like a big ask. Ovi is gonna have to get ahead of the count to take some pressure off his future self.
Another 50 goal season would be incredible this year. Realistically, 40-45 seems like an ideal benchmark. In fact, getting 80-90 goals over the next two seasons would go a long way.
To project forward: let’s assume Ovechkin scores 85 more goals across the next two seasons. That would give him 815 all-time, 14 ahead of Gordie Howe for second-most all-time.
With three years left on his contract, Ovechkin would need to score exactly 80 more to pass Wayne Gretzky, or 27 goals per season.
If Ovechkin can manage to score 30-35 goals at age 38, that would require him to average 23-25 goals over the final two years.
By scoring 25-30 goals at age 39, Ovechkin would need between 15-25 goals in the final year of his contract to break the record.
There’s a lot of conditions, and a lot would have to break right, but I am confident a 40-year-old Ovechkin would be able to score 15-20 goals in his age 40 season. It’s these next two to three years that are crucially important, so he can put himself in the position to need just 15-20.
I just threw a lot of hypothetical numbers on the page, but the reality is this journey has to be taken one season at a time. No matter what he does in 2021-22, we’ll have to readjust our expectations, for better or worse. A dud of a season could signal the end of the road before we even get to Year Two or Three.
On the bright side, if Ovi falls behind pace and finishes 2025-26 roughly 20 goals or so behind the record, I’d be shocked if he didn’t re-sign for one more year to go after it.
That makes me wonder how the organization will work with him. Having Ovi break a seemingly unbreakable goals record wearing a Capitals uniform would fall right behind a Stanley Cup in terms of franchise victories. To have a franchise star of 20-plus years achieve that would be quite the moment.
The harsh reality is I have a hard time thinking a team paying the following players will form a playoff contender: a 39-year-old Oveckin $9.5 million, a 37-year-old Backstrom $9.2 million, a 35-year-old John Carlson $8 million, a 38-year-old TJ Oshie $5.75 million and a 33-year-old Evgeny Kuznetsov $7.8 million. Unfortunately, that is what the Caps will be doing in 2024-25, the second-to-last year of Ovechkin’s contract.
Even if Kuznetsov is traded before then, I’d expect Tom Wilson to be on a new contract, and up-and-comers Connor McMichael, Alex Alexeyev, Hendrix Lapierre and others will be in the first year or two of their first non-entry level contracts by then.
Those latter three will hopefully represent the new wave, but regardless, if the team is no longer a playoff team by the end of Ovi’s contract, it’s fair to wonder if management will focus on surrounding him with players that will help him get to the record. Shelling out a good amount of cap to play with a high-assist center and winger could be in the cards if winning a Cup isn’t a priority.
The team may not win as much, but Ovi can chase the record and the team can gather better draft picks and prospects to build once Ovi and Backstrom are gone. The team should obviously compete for the playoffs and more as long as they can, but I wouldn’t hate taking that route if and when the winning days are over.
Even as it seems a flurry of stars are leaving DC (more on that in an upcoming post), it’s comforting knowing the city’s biggest star is here to stay.
Cover Photo Credit: Nick Wass/AP
The Wildcard 