By Joe Pohoryles
The 2021 NHL Expansion Draft is coming in two days, and the Seattle Kraken will soon have their first roster of players. The protection list deadline for the rest of the league (minus Vegas, who is entirely exempt from the draft since being an expansion team themselves just four years ago) recently passed, and the Capitals’ list looks like this:
Forwards:
Nicklas Backstrom (No-Movement Clause)
TJ Oshie
Evgeny Kuznetsov
Tom Wilson
Anthony Mantha
Lars Eller
Daniel Sprong
Defensemen:
Dmitry Orlov
John Carlson
Trevor van Riemsdyk
Goaltender:
Ilya Samsonov
First, we’ll address the protected players:
I was only surprised by two names on this list: Sprong and van Riemsdyk. Sprong has displayed top-end scoring ability in limited minutes. At 24 years old, he’s one of the few young players on the roster and has a chance to establish himself as a solid middle six winger for years to come.
That said, Conor Sheary had a better all-around season and was re-signed for two years with a $1.5 million AAV. The 29-year-old was a pleasant surprise as a last-minute addition for the 2020-21 Caps, and he’s now locked in as a quality third line winger for the next two years.
His playoff performance was poor, but he still projects as a key part of the bottom six, assuming he stays in Washington. The final forward spot came down to Sheary and Sprong, so I’m not totally shocked it went to Sprong. There are two good reasons why the Caps protected Sprong over the more-proven Sheary, but more on that later.
The bigger surprise was TvR. van Riemsdyk didn’t even crack the top six defensemen in 2020-21, but often filled in well as an injury replacement. There was even debate as to whether or not he should fall out of the lineup once the Caps got healthy for the playoffs.
Even with the solid performance, one would think the Caps would prioritize top-four blue liners like Brenden Dillon or Justin Schultz. There’s a major reason for Sprong and TvR’s protection, which I’ll get to shortly.
To dispell any panic about a name noticeably absent from the forwards list, Alex Ovechkin is an unrestricted free agent, and if picked by Seattle, would not have to sign there if he wanted to play elsewhere.
Ovechkin has expressed a desire to return to Washington, the Caps want him back (and are willing to overpay), and Seattle GM Ron Francis knows it would be dumb to waste a pick on a star who won’t even bother signing. The Caps did the same thing with Oshie in the Vegas Expansion Draft.
Speaking of Oshie, a homecoming isn’t in the books for the 34-year-old winger. Many speculated Oshie would be left unprotected due to his current contract paying him “top six forward” money into his late 30s.
The Mount Vernon, WA native would have been a perfect candidate to be the Kraken’s first captain, and the Caps would get over $5 million in salary cap relief. Despite that, he has proven to still be among the Caps’ most productive forwards, and losing him for nothing would be a major blow for this team.
Anyway, unless Ovechkin decides to pack it in and go to Russia, he’ll be back with the Caps again next season, in what I assume will be a four-year deal with an AAV between $10-11 million. I wouldn’t be surprised if the two sides have already agreed to terms and are waiting until after the draft to put pen to paper.
Some fans may also be disappointed Kuznetsov is protected, after his decline in play and general off-ice storylines. (If you had told me before the season that one NHL player would end up on the COVID-19 List twice this year, Kuzy would have been my first guess.)
Truth is, as much as it would help to free up his $7.8 million in cap space, losing a top-six center for nothing would sink this team. Kuzy certainly isn’t playing up to his price tag, but the team is better off making a trade to get 50 cents on the dollar than just giving the proverbial dollar away. It would be nice to get a top-six center in return, but I don’t have high hopes for the return in any potential Kuzy trade.
Finally, the reasons Sprong/TvR were protected:
The cap space references for Oshie and Kuzy are not insignificant. As has been the case for years now, the Capitals are pressed very tightly against the salary cap. The expansion draft presents a unique opportunity to free up cap space for, well, free.
It can hurt to lose an impactful player for nothing, but if Seattle takes on a certain player and give the team more cap space, it wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world.
Sprong is 24 and carries a $750,000 cap hit. Sheary is paid twice as much and is nearly 30. Caps GM Brian MacLellan has committed to making this team younger, and his protection of Sprong over Sheary is the first step.
Freeing up $1.5 million isn’t the best case scenario here, and I truly hope both Sprong and Sheary are with the Caps next season, but a young forward with a small cap hit and strong scoring ability is an attractive target for the Kraken, so it was wise of the Caps to protect him.
As for TvR, he’s proven he can be a reliable third-pair defenseman, and with a cap hit less than $1 million, he’s even more valuable for a team strapped for cash. Dillon and Schultz are due about $4 million each next season ($3.9 million for Dillon), so freeing up that much space would be better for the team, even if it means losing a better defenseman.
Best Case Scenario
This team needs cap space, and leaving both Dillon and Schultz unprotected signal the Caps want to give Seattle as many enticing options as possible to distract from the lower cap hit players.
Dillon was inconsistent at best last year, especially in the playoffs, but he’s still a proven NHL defenseman that excels in five-on-five. Schultz had a productive season with plenty of points, but is also injury prone. Even with the downsides, either would be a good choice for Seattle.
It’s also the best case scenario from the Caps’ perspective. The blue line is crowded; even with Zdeno Chara on the way out, 21-year-old Martin Fehervary is pegged to replace him on the third pair full-time. Alex Alexeyev, another 21-year-old, is not ready for a full time role yet, but is expected to get called up here and there. This all comes from MacLellan.
On top of Fehervary coming in to essentially replace Chara, Michal Kempny will be coming off long-term injured reserve. With Orlov, Dillon, Kempny and Fehervary all left-shots, one has to go. With Carlson, Schultz, Nick Jensen and TvR on the right side, another will have to go from that crop as well.
A trade will be necessary somewhere down the line, but to have one of Dillon or Schultz (or even Jensen, but I doubt Seattle goes that route) taken off the Caps’ hands will be a good thing.
I’d also be happy with Seattle taking Carl Hagelin. While he’s still a speedy winger who excels on the penalty kill, his $2.75 million cap hit is ridiculous for a guy who’s now exclusively a fourth-liner.
That said, given his fit with Nic Dowd and Garnet Hathaway that made them the Caps’ best line in the postseason, keeping him around may be worth the added expense. I also highly doubt Seattle would want to take on his contract given his current role/abilities. He should be safe.
The worst case scenario would be Seattle weaseling their way into Ovechkin’s negotiations, striking up a massive deal to steal him away from Washington and then he surpasses Gretzky’s goal record as Seattle’s first captain.
Assuming that nightmare doesn’t come close to happening, the worst case scenario is the Kraken selecting Vitek Vanecek. Some have criticized Samsonov’s maturity (him and Kuzy have been the new Dumb and Dumber these past couple years), and mistakes like the one that lost the Caps Game 3 in the 2021 First Round have turned people against him.
Fact is Sammy is more talented and has a higher ceiling than Vanecek. Vanecek was a reliable backup when Sammy couldn’t play, but his numbers weren’t great enough to warrant his protection. Losing him would still be devastating.
A player of his caliber is replaceable, but his cap hit certainly isn’t. Vanecek is making just shy of $717k next season, so if Seattle takes him, not only do the Caps lose a young netminder with room to develop into someone better, but the team also doesn’t get back any useful cap space.
Seattle reportedly has their eyes on Florida’s Chris Driedger and Dallas’ Ben Bishop, and Montreal’s Carey Price was left unprotected due to his mammoth of a contract, but they still need a young, cheap third goalie behind whichever two they end up taking from elsewhere. They could do much worse than Vanecek.
It will be tough to part ways with pretty much any player in this expansion draft, but losing VV would be a disaster for cap reasons and goalie depth. The 21st will be nerve-wracking, but Caps fans should hope it’s Dillon or Schultz shipping out to the other Washington.
Cover Photo Credit: Patrick Smith/Getty Images
The Wildcard 