By: Joe Pohoryles
After one of the worst 20-game starts in his career, Alex Ovechkin has kicked things back into gear, scoring 11 goals this past month to elevate his season total to 19 in 35 games. The Great Eight now sits just six goals shy of tying Marcel Dionne for fifth on the all-time list, a mark that seemed to be a long shot just a month ago.
Shame on me for counting him out. The Caps played 15 games since Mar. 8, through which Ovechkin totaled 16 points (11g, 5a). Ovi started the season at a pedestrian 0.40 goals per game, but with his red-hot 0.73 GPG over the past month, his full-season rate is up to 0.54. This isn’t too far behind his career average of 0.61, and considering how he started the year, is the best-case scenario at this point.
With 17 games left in the Capitals schedule, Ovechkin is now practically guaranteed to pass Dionne by season’s end (barring another stoppage, due to injury or otherwise), and that didn’t seem likely just a month ago. Should he continue on this torrent pace of 0.73 GPG, Ovi will finish with 31 goals on the year and 737 total.
Looking conservatively, and assuming he regresses to the mean of 0.54 GPG, Ovi will finish the year with 28 goals and 734 total. Either way, he should be squarely between Dionne and Brett Hull by season’s end.
Speaking of Hull, Ovi reached another significant milestone on a different all-time goals list, tying Hull for second on the all-time power play goals list with 265. Both Ovi and Hull sit nine power play goals behind all-time leader Dave Andreychuk. Power play goals and scoring rates on the man-up are more difficult to project, so who knows when he’ll take the number one spot?
However, if I had to estimate based on recent history, it will take roughly 51 more games. Allow me to elaborate:
| Season | Capitals PPG/PP opp | Caps PP% | Caps PP opps per game | Ovi PP goals | % of Caps PP goals scored by Ovi |
| 2016-17 | 57/247 | 23.07 | 3.01 | 17 | 29.80 |
| 2017-18 | 55/244 | 22.54 | 2.98 | 17 | 30.90 |
| 2018-19 | 49/236 | 20.76 | 2.88 | 18 | 36.73 |
| 2019-20* | 42/216 | 19.44 | 3.13 | 13 | 30.90 |
| 2020-21* | 23/96 | 23.96 | 2.46 | 5 | 21.73 |
Looking over the past five seasons, we can get a general sense of how Ovechkin and the Capitals have fared on the power play in recent years. Below are the five-year averages:
- 2.89 PP opportunities per game
- ~237 total PP opps per 82-game season
- 21.95 PP%
- 30.01% of Caps PPG scored by Ovi
With those last two percentages, we learn that for each power play opportunity the Capitals get, there’s theoretically a 6.59 percent chance Ovechkin will score (30.01% of 21.95% = 6.59%). That translates to one Ovechkin goal roughly every 15 power play opportunities for the Capitals.
Taking a simple approach, that means there will be 135 power play chances for the Caps before Ovechkin ties the record (15 chances x 9 goals), and 150 chances before Ovechkin breaks it (15 x 10). There have been four power play opportunities since Ovechkin last scored a power play goal, bringing the total down to 146.
As we’ve seen, the Caps have been getting about 2.89 power play opportunities per game over the past five seasons, which means it would theoretically take about 51 more games for Ovechkin to break the record (146/2.89 = 50.52).
Of course, this is no guarantee; every power play opportunity is mutually exclusive, so he may go the next 50 games without scoring a power play goal, or he could score in 10 of the next 15 power play chances and have the record within the next five games.
That said, if things play out as they have over the past five-ish years, we can expect the all-time power play goals record to belong to Ovi less than midway through next season. Specifically, about 34 games into the 2021-22 season, assuming Ovechkin doesn’t miss any time (and given the past year, we probably shouldn’t bank on that).
Topping Gretzky on the regular all-time goals list is the only focus in this series, but after a disheartening year followed by an underwhelming stretch in February, it’s worth recognizing and celebrating the milestones like these, and we will hopefully be celebrating Ovi’s next NHL record relatively soon.
Cover Photo Credit: L – Nick Wass/AP; R – US Hockey Hall of Fame
The Wildcard 