By: Joe Pohoryles
Three goals in four weeks. That’s all Alex Ovechkin has scored between Feb. 8 and today, giving him a total of eight goals through 20 games. After losing so much time due to the recent shortened seasons, Ovechkin needed to ramp up his scoring pace. Instead, he’s experiencing one of the worst starts of his career.
Ovechkin goals through first 20 games* each season of his career
Through his first 20 games, eight goals is his slowest start since 2012-13, when he also had just eight goals. His lowest total through 20 games was seven in 2011-12.
In a normal 82-game season, he would have plenty of time to get back on track. However, in this 56-game pandemic season in which he has already missed a handful of games, he only has 32 games left.
For a full season, Ovechkin would be on pace for about 33 goals, matching his total in 2016-17. If he plays every game for the rest of this season, he’s on pace for about 21 goals in 52 games. Not ideal.
There is precedence for a bounce back; that 2012-13 season in which he started with eight goals was also shortened, this time due to a lockout. The season had eight fewer games on the schedule than this year’s, but despite the relatively slow start, Ovechkin finished with 32 goals in 48 games to win yet another Rocket Richard (and his third Hart Trophy).
With 24 goals in the final 28 games, it’s no wonder why Ovechkin won over MVP voters by the end of the season. That ridiculous 0.857 goals per game rate pulled him far out of the slump, ending the year on pace for 55 goals in a full 82-game season.
Will we experience a similar explosion this time around? For those rooting for the record to be broken, we better hope so. This season is more a sprint than a marathon, after all, and that shorter regular season tends to help older players.
It may be unwise to expect a similar burst this time around, though. In the 2012-13 season, Ovechkin was 27 years old, which is a peak age during an athlete’s physical prime. The Russian Machine keeps on chugging, but expecting him to do the same thing eight years later at 35 seems like a pipe dream.
That doesn’t mean it can’t get better at all. Even if his scoring rate jumps up to 0.60 goals per game from his current 0.40, he’ll finish with about 27 goals. A month ago, it seemed like 30 was a realistic baseline, so while 27 would be disappointing, it wouldn’t be too far off. To reach 30 exactly would mean Ovechkin needs to score 0.6875 goals per game down the stretch.
He averaged 0.705 goals per game across all of last season (which was also shortened), so he can still put out that level of production in a shorter span. It takes one game to get hot, and if he can put together a good week, that will make a tremendous difference.
Ovechkin will hopefully pass Phil Esposito to reach sixth on the all-time list by next month, needing four more goals to pass him. Marcel Dionne sits fifth with 731 goals, meaning Ovechkin will need to finish the year with 27 goals to eclipse him.
As mentioned, ending with 27 is well within the realm of possibility, but the main target is No. 99 sitting at the top, so Ovechkin will have to make up major ground this month and beyond.
I don’t anticipate Ovechkin putting together a scoring stretch that wins him his fourth Hart Trophy, but if he can get somewhere close to that, he could help make up for the past calendar year that has greatly diminished his chances.
Cover Photo Credit: CBS Philly
The Wildcard 