With the additions of Conor Sheary, Zdeno Chara and possibly Craig Anderson, the Capitals are putting the final moves in place before the 2020-21 season begins. As it stands, the team is more than $3.5 million over the salary cap (according to CapFriendly), but more on the cap situation later.
For now, Chara becomes the ninth defenseman on the roster, which doesn’t include Michal Kempny, who will spend the season on Long Term Injury Reserve (LTIR) recovering from an Achilles injury. Recently signed Paul LaDue figures to be sent to the AHL, which leaves eight defensemen vying for what should be seven spots.
Among the eight defensemen, the top four is certain:
Brenden Dillon will be with John Carlson on the first pair, and Dmitry Orlov and newly signed Justin Schultz figure to make up the second pair. Orlov and Schultz have similar play styles, as puck movers who aren’t considered “stay-at-home” defensemen, so they may fit better with more defensive-minded counterparts, but in any case, they are both guaranteed to be in one of the three pairings.
That leaves Nick Jensen, Jonas Siegenthaler, Trevor van Riemsdyk and Chara. I figured Martin Fehervary would have a shot at becoming a full-time NHLer this season, but it appears he’s going to spend another year in the AHL.
Chara wasn’t signed this late for no reason; he will be a fixture in the bottom pair. At this stage in his career and at his age, he could be poised for a part-time role where he’ll be a healthy scratch in a portion of the team’s games this year. That wouldn’t exactly fit the 6’9″ former Norris Trophy winner’s M.O. He played 68 games last season at 42 years old.
With Chara in the mix, it’s hard to predict who the odd man out will be. Siegenthaler is 23, the youngest defenseman on the team by far, and just signed a one-year deal this offseason as a restricted free agent. He has been one of the best bottom pair defensemen in the league. Chara and Siegenthaler are both left-shot defensemen.
Jensen and van Riemsdyk, meanwhile, are right-shots. Jensen is the only one of the bottom four making over $1 million ($2.5 million cap hit). van Riemsdyk was brought in this offseason with Schultz to add depth to the right side of the defense.
Jensen was initially re-signed to be on the second pair prior to last season, but he couldn’t nail down the position and ceded it to Radko Gudas, who also fit much better on the bottom pair. Jensen progressed as the season went along and looked much more comfortable on the third pair; he was arguably the team’s best defenseman in the bubble.
The Caps still have all of training camp to decide how to field their lines, but the more pressing question is how the team will get under the salary cap in time for the season. With the team still needing a 13th forward and a backup goaltender, changes will need to be made.
The team signed Sheary, a former Penguins forward, and he should slide into a bottom six role, likely replacing Ilya Kovalchuk’s spot on the third line. Before Sheary signed, Daniel Sprong was on the inside track to be brought up from Hershey and compete for the job. With his $725,000 cap hit, he could still theoretically be brought up as the 13th forward once space is cleared, but the extra forward spot tends to go to centers/more versatile forwards and Sprong only plays on the wing.
In addition, with Henrik Lundqvist and his $1.5 million cap hit being moved to LTIR, the team will need to bring in one of Vitek Vanecek, Pheonix Copley or Anderson, who signed a Professional Tryout Agreement earlier this week.
If the team decides not to sign Anderson to a full deal, Vanecek has the edge over Copley given the Czech’s smaller cap hit (~$716k vs. $1.1 million) and the fact that Vanecek beat out Copley for Braden Holtby’s backup spot in the playoffs last summer.
Looking at the roster as a whole, moving Kempny and Lundqvist to LTIR clears up $4 million and brings the team right below the cap, but there won’t be many options to fill the rest of the roster.
With those two contracts on LTIR, and adding in the eight defensemen, 12 forwards and one goaltender currently on the NHL roster, the Caps have slightly less than $1.5 million left to fill their remaining holes. The team will be forced to work strictly with minimum contracts unless a trade is made.
With two spots left to fill on the 23-man active roster, the best bets for the extra forward are either Sprong or Brian Pinho, who got limited playing time in the postseason. Both hold a $725,000 cap hit and would leave the cap space at about $720,123. That’s just the right amount of space for Vanecek, but otherwise it would mean Anderson wouldn’t be able to receive any more than $720,000. Since the NHL minimum is $700,000, that isn’t impossible, but it will be interesting to see what direction the club goes in.
That does spell doom for Copley’s chances, as his $1.1 million hit would put the team over the cap, and he’s not the type of player the team should bend over backwards trying to fit under the cap. He’ll likely be on the taxi squad or stay in the AHL, but I would be shocked if the team tries to finagle him into the active roster; Vanecek or Anderson would be much simpler.
Final, Pre-Training Camp Line Predictions
Forwards
Alex Ovechkin – Evgeny Kuznetsov – Tom Wilson
Jakub Vrana – Nicklas Backstrom – TJ Oshie
Carl Hagelin – Lars Eller – Conor Sheary
Richard Panik – Nic Dowd – Garnet Hathaway
Brian Pinho
Defense
Brenden Dillon – John Carlson
Dmitry Orlov – Justin Schultz
Zdeno Chara – Nick Jensen
Jonas Siegenthaler
Goaltenders
Ilya Samsonov
Craig Anderson
I personally would prefer if Hagelin dropped to the fourth line and Panik moved up to the third, but as of now it seems like Panik will remain on the fourth line since that’s where he thrived last season. I still like Panik’s upside moving back up to the third over Hagelin’s at this point in the their careers. Hagelin offers so little offensively these days that his speed and defensive prowess would fit better on the fourth line.
I also want to see what Sprong brings to the table as the extra forward, but I expect a center like Pinho to fill that spot while Sprong gets more time to develop in the AHL or on the taxi squad. That said, the 13th forward spot is far from locked down.
As for defense, you could easily swap Chara and Siegenthaler; Chara regressed last season and will continue declining the older he gets, and Siegenthaler will be best developed as a regular on the third pair, not as an extra defenseman.
That leaves van Riemsdyk as the odd man out. Given Schultz’s recent injury history and Chara’s age factoring into his durability going forward, van Riemsdyk will be good injury insurance who will still get occasional playing time. When you consider the number of back-to-backs scheduled for this year, he may come in to relieve one of the other defensemen regularly.
Finally for goaltender, I’d be surprised if the team decides to roll with Samsonov and Vanecek given the lack of collective experience. As much as Anderson is declining, Ottawa hasn’t had a winning team since 2016-17, and Anderson should perform slightly better behind a better defensive group. Samsonov will still have to be the clear No. 1 if this team wants to succeed, but Anderson seems like a safe backup at this point in his career.
Also, if the team takes on Vanecek as the backup and puts Copley on the taxi squad, or vice versa, Hershey will be left out to dry with no one besides Zach Fucale between the pipes. With Anderson stepping in as the experienced backup this team needs, one of Vanecek or Copley will be available off the taxi squad while the other will split time with Fucale in Hershey. It’s the ideal setup for both the parent club and the minor league system.
The cap situation does look messy from afar, but the cleared $4 million makes the situation less stressful, although it is unfortunate to lose both Kempny and Lundqvist. Training camp starts in three days and the season begins just over a week after that, so we should know the roster for sure within the next week or two.
Cover Photo Credit: NHL.com
The Wildcard 