With a record of 6-7 and three games left in the regular season, the Washington Football Team is leading the NFC East. The last time the team led the division with three games remaining was 2015, where the team was also 6-7 and ended the season on a three-game winning streak to claim the division crown.
That 2015 season was the last time Washington was in the playoffs, and despite the packed race that is the 2020 NFC East, Washington is in the driver’s seat, sitting a game ahead of the New York Giants and 1.5 games ahead of Philadelphia.
The division is still far from locked up, but after taking a close look over the remaining schedule, here are a bunch scenarios in which the Washington Football Team will win the division, and a couple others where they fall just short.
Scenario 1: Everyone runs the table (minus division games)
| Week 15 | Week 16 | Week 17 | Final Record: | |
| WFT (6-7) | W vs SEA | W vs CAR | W vs PHI | 9-7* |
| Giants (5-8) | W vs CLE | W vs BAL | W vs DAL | 8-8 |
| Eagles (4-8-1) | W vs ARI | W vs DAL | L vs WAS | 6-9-1 |
| Cowboys (4-9) | W vs SF | L vs PHI | L vs NYG | 5-11 |
This one is pretty simple; as it stands, if we manage to win the remaining three games, we win the division. It wouldn’t matter what the rest of the division does, as evidenced by the second-place Giants also winning out and still not overtaking the top spot. This scenario is unlikely, but it’s comforting (or maybe concerning) knowing that this team controls its own destiny.
Scenario 2: WFT drops season finale (2-1 finish)
| Week 15 | Week 16 | Week 17 | Final Record | |
| WFT (6-7) | W vs SEA | W vs CAR | L vs PHI | 8-8* |
| Giants (5-8) | L vs CLE | W vs BAL | W vs DAL | 7-9 |
| Eagles (4-8-1) | W vs ARI | W vs DAL | W vs WAS | 7-8-1 |
| Cowboys (4-9) | L vs SF | L vs PHI | L vs NYG | 4-12 |
Scenario 3: WFT drops season finale (1-2 finish)
| Week 15 | Week 16 | Week 17 | Final Record | |
| WFT (6-7) | L vs SEA | W vs CAR | L vs PHI | 7-9* |
| Giants (5-8) | L vs CLE | L vs BAL | W vs DAL | 6-10 |
| Eagles (4-8-1) | L vs ARI | W vs DAL | W vs WAS | 6-9-1 |
| Cowboys (4-9) | L vs SF | L vs PHI | L vs NYG | 4-12 |
If Washington can pull off another upset in Seattle, it will put them in an even greater position, but if they fall short as expected, and even lose to Philly in Week 17, there will still be hope as long as they win in Week 16 against Carolina.
If Washington sandwiches a Week 16 win with losses in Weeks 15 and 17, the Giants would have to go 2-1 or better over than same span, or Philly would have to win out in order for either team to overtake the division lead. The results in Week 15 will create a much clearer picture as to which team will be the biggest threat.
Scenario 4: Dallas wins out
| Week 15 | Week 16 | Week 17 | Final Record | |
| WFT (6-7) | L vs SEA | W vs CAR | L vs PHI | 7-9* |
| Giants (5-8) | L vs CLE | W vs BAL | L vs DAL | 6-10 |
| Eagles (4-8-1) | W vs ARI | L vs DAL | W vs WAS | 6-9-1 |
| Cowboys (4-9) | W vs SF | W vs PHI | W vs NYG | 7-9 |
As long as Washington wins at least one of the next three games, Dallas will officially be out of the playoff picture. The only way Dallas can make the playoffs is if they win all of their next three games and Washington loses all three. (The Giants would also have to finish 7-9 or worse; Dallas owns the tie-breaker between the two.)
When it comes to Washington winning the division, Philadelphia wouldn’t have a chance in this scenario even if they win their other two matchups. A Giants loss to either Cleveland or Baltimore would mean Washington still wins the division despite Dallas ending the season 3-0 and Philly ending 2-1.
Scenario 5: Jalen Hurts our chances
| Week 15 | Week 16 | Week 17 | Final Record | |
| WFT (6-7) | W vs SEA | W vs CAR | L vs PHI | 8-8* |
| Giants (5-8) | W vs CLE | L vs BAL | W vs DAL | 7-9 |
| Eagles (4-8-1) | W vs ARI | W vs DAL | W vs WAS | 7-8-1 |
| Cowboys (4-9) | L vs SF | L vs PHI | L vs NYG | 4-12 |
Scenario 6: Jalen kills our chances
| Week 15 | Week 16 | Week 17 | Final Record | |
| WFT (6-7) | L vs SEA | W vs CAR | L vs PHI | 7-9 |
| Giants (5-8) | L vs CLE | W vs BAL | W vs DAL | 7-9 |
| Eagles (4-8-1) | W vs ARI | W vs DAL | W vs WAS | 7-8-1* |
| Cowboys (4-9) | L vs SF | L vs PHI | L vs NYG | 4-12 |
Rookie quarterback Jalen Hurts gave the Eagles new life in their 24-21 upset win over the New Orleans Saints in Week 14. The Saints share the best record in the NFC with the Packers (10-3), so the whole league should pay close attention to how Hurts leads the Eagles moving forward. Philly’s tie with the Bengals in Week 3 could be their saving grace (or crushing blow) depending on how the season works out.
If Philly wins out and Washington goes 1-2, including a Week 17 loss to the Eagles, then Philadelphia will have the edge by half a game and win the division. That said, if the Giants win out or Washington goes 2-1 over this stretch, the Eagles will fall short, even if they finish 3-0.
Scenario 7: New York wins out
| Week 15 | Week 16 | Week 17 | Final Record | |
| WFT (6-7) | L vs SEA | W vs CAR | W vs PHI | 8-8 |
| Giants (5-8) | W vs CLE | W vs BAL | W vs DAL | 8-8* |
| Eagles (4-8-1) | W vs ARI | W vs DAL | L vs WAS | 6-9-1 |
| Cowboys (4-9) | L vs SF | L vs PHI | L vs NYG | 4-12 |
Speaking of the Giants winning out, that would be the biggest threat to Washington’s division title. Even if Washington goes 2-1 over the next three games, it wouldn’t matter if the Giants go 3-0. New York own the tiebreaker after beating Washington twice this year, so the only way to overcome the Giants winning out is if Washington wins out as well. Prepare to become big AFC North fans over the next couple weeks.
Scenario 8: Washington… as a Wild Card?
| Week 15 | Week 16 | Week 17 | Final Record | |
| WFT (6-7) | L vs SEA | W vs CAR | W vs PHI | 8-8^ |
| Giants (5-8) | W vs CLE | W vs BAL | W vs DAL | 8-8* |
| Eagles (4-8-1) | W vs ARI | W vs DAL | L vs WAS | 6-9-1 |
| Cowboys (4-9) | L vs SF | L vs PHI | L vs NYG | 4-12 |
There is a scenario in which both the Football Team and Giants finish 8-8, but both teams still make the playoffs. The Giants would still win the division and host the 4/5 matchup, but Washington would finish as the No. 7 seed and face off against the No. 2 team in the NFC, but only if the following results occur in addition to what the table depicts above:
Week 15:
- Minnesota defeats Chicago
Week 16:
- San Francisco defeats Arizona
- New Orleans defeats Minnesota* (If Chicago beats Minnesota in Week 15, this matchup won’t matter)
- Jacksonville defeats Chicago* (ONLY IF Chicago beats Minnesota in Week 15)
Week 17:
- Green Bay defeats Chicago
- LA Rams defeat Arizona
- Detroit defeats Minnesota
As you can see, Minnesota, Chicago and Arizona are the other teams in the running for the final Wild Card spot. The funny thing is, most of these outcomes seem likely, with the exception of SF/Ari and Jax/Chi in Week 16 as well as Det/Min in Week 17, but crazier things have happened.
SF/Ari and Det/Min are division matchups, which tend to be more volatile, and Jax/Chi won’t matter if Minnesota beats Chicago in Week 15. The least likely part of this scenario is the Giants finishing 3-0.
The prospect of TWO (2) NFC East teams making the playoffs after how historically bad this division has performed would be the turnaround of the century, even if both teams would be 8-8. It’s not the outcome I’m rooting for, but I’d take it over missing the playoffs.
Scenario 9: Six-Win Champion?
| Week 15 | Week 16 | Week 17 | Final Record | |
| WFT (6-7) | L vs SEA | L vs CAR | L vs PHI | 6-10* |
| Giants (5-8) | L vs CLE | L vs BAL | L vs DAL | 5-11 |
| Eagles (4-8-1) | L vs ARI | L vs DAL | W vs WAS | 5-10-1 |
| Cowboys (4-9) | L vs SF | W vs PHI | W vs NYG | 6-10 |
If that last scenario seemed crazy, well buckle up for this one: the Washington Football Team could lose their next three games and still win the division. The scenario above is the only way it can happen. A late surge by Dallas would put them up to second place, but the tie-breaker would give Washington the division title, and the worst record for a division winner in NFL history.
The possibility is also on the table for New York and Philly; the Giants could finish 6-10 and win the division if Washington also finishes 6-10. Philly could go 2-1 and could win at 6-9-1 as long as the other three teams are 6-10 or worse. You can use many words to describe the NFC East, but ‘boring’ can’t be one of them.
Scenario 9: My Prediction
| Week 15 | Week 16 | Week 17 | Final Record | |
| WFT (6-7) | L vs SEA | W vs CAR | W vs PHI | 8-8* |
| Giants (5-8) | L vs CLE | L vs BAL | W vs DAL | 6-10 |
| Eagles (4-8-1) | W vs ARI | W vs DAL | L vs WAS | 6-9-1 |
| Cowboys (4-9) | L vs SF | L vs PHI | L vs NYG | 4-12 |
We can speculate all we want about the wild, unlikely outcomes, but at the end of the day, this is my prediction for the NFC East’s performance over the remainder of the season. Maybe it’s skewed optimistically given my bias, but I truly believe Washington will win their final two games, and the Giants will have trouble against the two playoff-caliber AFC North teams coming up in the schedule.
If my prediction for how the rest of the league will turn out comes true (which almost certainly won’t happen), then the 8-8 Washington Football Team will be hosting Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the first round of the playoffs. I can’t imagine how bizarre that sentence would look if I typed it a year ago.
Cover Photo Credit: ESPN NFL Playoff Machine
The Wildcard 