Rafter Watch: Which numbers are most likely to be retired next?

Nothing immortalizes a player like a number retirement. In doing so, a franchise essentially declares, “this player was so incredible that anyone who wears this number after him would be insulting his legacy.”

Ok maybe not that extreme, but it does signify a player who had a legendary impact on the franchise. As of right now, among the four major DC teams, 11 numbers are officially retired. The Wizards lead the way with five, followed by the Capitals with four, and the Washington Football Team has two.

The Nationals have reissued the numbers initially retired by the Montreal Expos, so no number has been retired by the Nationals (although that will change as soon as a certain someone decides to hang it up, which could be as soon as this year). Jackie Robinson’s 42 has been retired leaguewide, but that doesn’t really count for the purpose of this post.

After the recent John WallRussell Westbrook trade, some have been calling for the Wizards to retire Wall’s No. 2 once all is said and done, while Westbrook opted to wear No. 4 in Washington after wearing No. 0 his entire NBA career. 0 is not officially retired by Washington, but the number has not been assigned since the departure of Gilbert Arenas in 2011.

Which leads to the phenomenon of “semi-retired” numbers, which are not officially retired by the team, but have not been issued to any other player since it was last worn by a franchise legend.

Right now, the Washington Football Team has more semi-retired numbers than officially retired. Bobby Mitchell’s No. 49 was only the second to be officially retired, and until this past summer it was only Sammy Baugh’s No. 33. At the same time, Sonny Jurgensen (9), Darrell Green (28), Art Monk (81), John Riggins (44), Sean Taylor (21) and Charley Taylor (42) are all the last players to wear their respective numbers. Joe Theismann was also on that list until he granted permission for Dwayne Haskins Jr. to wear No. 7.

Now for the Wizards, it seems Arenas’ No. 0 is getting the same treatment (although the team was reportedly willing to make an exception for Westbrook), and I’d be shocked if the team assigns the No. 2 anytime soon, making both semi-retired. All this number retirement talk got me thinking, “which numbers will actually be retired next?” And that’s what we will be exploring today.

I’m in the camp that number retirements should be reserved only for the best-of-the-best, because if too many people have their numbers retired, the honor starts to lose its meaning. That said, if any player deserves to have their number officially retired, it’s Green, and you could argue most of those other names above deserve the official immortalization as well, but it seems they’ll have to settle for the informality.

In a tiered format, I’ll be naming the players in contention to have their numbers retired from “locks” to “unlikely.” I’m going to limit the entry pool to active players, as the names mentioned above are practically retired anyway. Among active players, however, there are plenty of possible candidates.

I will also exclude players that have not yet played five professional seasons, like young greats such as Juan Soto, Terry McLaurin, Jakub Vrana and Rui Hachimura. It’s way too early to speculate about these players, as they have a long way to go in their careers.

Locks

Alex Ovechkin (Capitals No. 8)

Of the 11 retired numbers in Washington, Ovechkin has had the best career of all of them (except maybe Baugh, but I give Ovi the edge). This is the lock of all locks. It was clear early in his career that he would be the last to wear No. 8 for the Capitals.

Ryan Zimmerman (Nationals No. 11)

Zimmerman isn’t the all-time great that Ovechkin is, but within the context of the Nationals, he’s the most important player in team history as of 2020. He was there from the beginning, as the team’s first ever draft pick. He was the team’s lone bright spot in the early years, and he contributed to multiple playoff runs leading up to the 2019 World Series.

As soon as he officially leaves the franchise, No. 11 will be off limits. It’s “Mr. National,” and he’s the only choice for the team’s first number retirement. He is the exact type of player that gets their number retired. He won’t be going to Cooperstown, but he will always be an all-time Nat.

Nicklas Backstrom (Capitals No. 19)

What would the Ovechkin era be without Backstrom? The ever-underappreciated center is a major reason behind the Caps’ successes over the past decade-plus. We still have a good five years or so before this will happen, but Backstrom will get this much-deserved honor and have his No. 19 hang in the rafters of Capital One Arena right next to No. 8 for the rest of time.

Max Scherzer (Nationals No. 31)

Mad Max is entering his seventh and final season of his contract, and while he could re-sign after this season, he has already solidified his status as the best player in Nationals history up to this point. He’s been among the best pitchers in baseball, and despite earlier stints in Arizona and Detroit, I’d anticipate he will be the first player to enter Cooperstown with a Curly ‘W’ on his cap.

He has the second-highest WAR in Nats history (38.4), and he’ll pass Zimmerman (38.5) this season. For perspective, Zimmerman has played parts of 15 seasons with the Nats, and Scherzer nearly matched his WAR in five years (plus the shortened 2020 season). As a National, he’s a three-time NL strikeouts leader, two-time Cy Young winner and a World Series champion. No one’s wearing No. 31 on the Nats again.

Ryan Kerrigan* (Washington Football Team No. 91)

I put an asterisk next to Kerrigan because he won’t have his number officially retired, as there is a long list of players ahead of him “in line,” but of everyone to come through the Washington organization over the past 10 years, Kerrigan is the most deserving.

He became the franchise sack leader this year, and until recently, has been the team’s best player. The ultra-reliable outside linebacker/defensive end did not miss a game until 2019, and it would be a crime to assign this number to anyone again. I expect it to join the list of “semi-retired” numbers. He’ll be the only Football Teamer worthy of this honor for a long time.

Likely:

Stephen Strasburg (Nationals No. 37)

Strasburg still has six years left on his contract and aims to be a “National for life.” By then, I’d expect him to own franchise records in pretty much every major pitching category, and maybe, just maybe, could have a case for Cooperstown. He still needs to add a bit to his resume before that conversation can happen, but for the Nats, he’s already accomplished a lot.

His arrival to the majors in 2010 signaled a huge change in the trajectory of the franchise, and he quickly became a fan favorite despite his reserved nature. Injuries hampered him multiple times over the past 10 years, so I think he needs a few more great seasons and franchise records before he’s a full lock. I definitely believe he’ll get there, especially since the Nats don’t have any retired numbers yet and he’s already accomplished so much.

John Wall (Wizards No. 2)

At this point, there are only two Wizards from the past 10 seasons even worthy of the discussion, and Wall has the best chance. Even then, it’s not a guarantee. He holds the franchise records for assists and steals by a wide margin, and is a five-time All-Star with one All-NBA nod. His impact in the DC community is even more of a reason to give him this honor.

This honor is reserved for the best in franchise history, and Wall is the franchise’s best player since the Wes Unseld/Elvin Hayes era. He’s so loved by the fans, and of the five retired numbers, all were done playing by 1981 or earlier, so if the Wizards decide they could use a modern player to join them in the rafters, Wall will be the first choice.

Braden Holtby (Capitals No. 70)

2020 has been rough for plenty of reasons in ways that are much more significant than sports, but the DC sports community has had to say a tough goodbye to two legendary players that have spent the past 10 years in Washington.

Holtby leaves DC as arguably the best goaltender in franchise history, and the former Vezina trophy winner was crucial in securing the Caps their first Stanley Cup championship. He is towards the top of many franchise leaderboards, and was another fan favorite. With Ovechkin and Backstrom guaranteed to get their numbers retired, the club may want to be restrictive, but Holtby would definitely be next in line.

Jury’s still out:

Bradley Beal (Wizards No. 3)

Besides Wall, Beal is the only other Wizard over the past 10 years worthy of consideration, and I think we need to wait a few more years before coming to that conclusion. Beal is now officially the guy in Washington, even if Wall hasn’t played in two years, and he’ll have to achieve tangible success with the team to help bolster his case.

He has the second-most points in franchise history, and has blossomed into one of the league’s best offensive players, so if he plays the bulk of his career in a Wizards jersey and goes on a few more playoff runs, he’ll have a greater chance.

John Carlson (Capitals No. 74)

With Carlson being the team’s best defenseman during the recent Ovechkin era, who has two All-Star Team selections as well as three top five finishes for the Norris Trophy (including second last year), he has a resume that continues to grow.

With at least two or three players from his era who will receive this honor, Carlson may be the odd man out, but if he remains a top tier defenseman for the majority of his time as a Cap and nabs a Norris Trophy, rises in franchise leaderboards and/or helps win another Cup, then he could have a chance.

Evgeny Kuznetsov (Capitals No. 92)

I’m less optimistic about Kuzy’s chances, but he has only played six full seasons and is still just 28, giving him plenty of time to bolster his resume. He put together a Conn Smythe-worthy performance in the 2018 playoffs to help the Caps win the Stanley Cup, and he looked like one of the best players in the world.

Since then, he’s trended up and down, but he’s still one of the team’s top producers. Still, many feel a player with his talents should be producing more. His work ethic has been called into question, and he still has more to accomplish, but if Kuzy can ever get close to his 2018 form and stay there for most of his career, he will have a shot.

Tom Wilson (Capitals No. 43)

This one is really out there, as Wilson is not the top-level league-wide talent that nearly every other player on here is/was, but he could soon enter the number retirement discussion. He’s been a regular NHLer since he was 19, and despite being despised across the league, he’s a fan favorite.

Wilson is an established top line winger and his offense continues to improve each season. With over 500 NHL games under his belt despite being just 26, some have pegged Wilson as a future captain once the current regime ages out. If he stays in Washington well into his 30s, and continues to produce at a high-level, he could be the team’s next Dale Hunter, the former Capitals captain and enforcer whose No. 32 hangs in the rafters of Capital One Arena after plenty of points and plenty more penalty minutes.

Trea Turner (Nationals No. 7)

Turner is only 27, and despite being the longest-tenured position player currently on the roster (unless Zim returns), he hasn’t quite reached franchise icon status. He reaches free agency in 2023, and if he departs then, it will certainly be a long shot, but if he spends his whole career with the Nats and remains a top player in the lineup, it’ll help his case.

Otherwise, I think enough players will be prioritized ahead of him that he won’t receive the honor. There is still plenty of time for that to change.

Unlikely:

Mike Green (Capitals No. 52)

Green only just recently retired, so I’m including him in this list, and despite the fact that he has not played in Washington in five years, he’s worthy of discussion. He was a defining member of the early Ovechkin era, and he put together some of the best offensive seasons from a defenseman, including his 31-goal season in 2008-09, which remains the highest single-season goal total from a defenseman in the 21st century.

He played 10 seasons in Washington and made The Wildcard’s 2010s All-Decade Team, but I think there are too many other prominent Caps ahead of him when it comes to earning that number; they can’t retire every number, nor should they. That said, No. 52 is an obscure enough number that it could fall under the “semi-retired” category.

Trent Williams* (Washington Football Team No. 71)

If Kerrigan was the team’s best defensive player over the past 10 years, Williams was the team’s best offensive player in that time span. The seven-time Pro Bowler was one of the lone bright spots, a constant in an offense that saw plenty of turnover.

Even despite his messy exit, Williams will have a spot in the Football Team’s Ring of Fame, but his number won’t be retired, not even unofficially. Offensive linemen just don’t see that happen. Not even all-time greats like Russ Grimm and Joe Jacoby have had their numbers semi-retired; there are just too many offensive linemen on a roster at a given time that teams can’t afford to make some numbers off limits. Wes Schweitzer is already wearing No. 71.

Anthony Rendon (Nationals No. 6)

Rendon was an instrumental part of the Nationals’ rise to postseason glory, and was the team’s best offensive player in their championship season. He never broke out on a national scene until 2019, where he earned his first All-Star appearance, finished third in MVP voting and won the World Series, but all Nats fans knew he was an All-Star caliber player well-before then.

He finished fifth in MVP voting back in 2014 in his second major league season, and he continued to improve from 2016-2018 after an injury-marred 2015. He played seven great years in Washington, and walked out a champion, but I just don’t think it’s enough to warrant a number retirement. I still love ya, Tony Two-Bags.

Bryce Harper (Nationals No. 34)

I think all the salt towards Harper should be let go at this point. He chose a better contract with a team that hasn’t made the postseason since before he entered the majors, and the Nats won a championship. It’s been two years. We should get over all the trolling; it’s no longer worth it.

That said, Harper won’t receive this honor. After winning Rookie of the Year and MVP in DC, Harper was well on his way, but given the nature of his departure and the fact that he’ll likely end up remembered more as a Phillie than a Nat, the team won’t honor a rival. No matter how much he did to elevate the franchise to a winning level, Harper has seemingly burned the bridge in DC, and the two sides have moved on.

Cover Photo Credit: NBC Sports

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